Did Apple launch its Vision Pro headset at the wrong time?

Apple’s Vision Pro headset is the most significant new product they’ve unveiled in nearly ten years, but there are strong cautions that it might not achieve the massive success Apple is aiming for. Even for a company known for pulling off surprises like Apple, making the Vision Pro a hit could be a real challenge.

In Mark Gurman’s most recent Power On newsletter, things don’t seem too bright. Gurman notes that Apple is on the hunt for the next game-changer to boost revenues after a lackluster quarter. However, he suggests that it’s becoming more evident that the Vision Pro won’t be raking in the big bucks anytime soon. Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s understand what is Apple’s Vision Pro headset.

Apple Vision Pro headset explained

The Vision Pro marks Apple’s first big leap into a new product category in eight years. It’s a unique headset that responds to the user’s eyes, hands, and voice – a standout feature you won’t find in other headsets. The Vision Pro is basically an augmented reality headset that smoothly combines the real and digital realms. Noticeably, Apple didn’t toss around terms like “mixed reality” or “virtual reality” in the presentation. This could be on purpose, but if you look closer, it seems like Apple is leaning more towards AR than VR with the Vision Pro.

Apple partnered with Zeiss to make custom optical inserts that snap onto the lenses for those who wear glasses. Still, if you’re a glasses-wearer, it’s strongly advised to consult your optician before thinking about getting the Vision Pro.

The Vision Pro opens up a whole new way for users to enjoy and create content in their surroundings. You can watch movies, especially in 3D, with spatial audio, making it feel like you’re in a cinema. Check out your own photos or videos and dive into video games. One cool thing about the Vision Pro is that it lets you see apps overlaying the real world – just flick to scroll through options and tap your fingers together to make selections with gestures. Apple showcased how users can interact with others on FaceTime during the presentation. They also highlighted the ability to capture “spatial” 3D videos and photos using the headset.

The Vision Pro is powered by the M2 processor, the same one Apple uses in its Macs. It also packs a special R1 chip, keeping things quiet and streaming images smoothly. The R1 brings in EyeSight, a nifty feature that projects realistic images of your eyes to people nearby when you’re wearing the headset. It even lets you see the person you’re talking to through the headset. This puts the Vision Pro way ahead of other headsets out there.

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Can Apple’s Vision Pro headset capture mainstream market?

Well, if Apple was aiming for a significant boost in earnings, going for a $3,500 mixed-reality headset might not have been the smartest move (at least on paper). After all, many companies have attempted to capture consumers’ interest with advanced headsets, all priced way lower than the Vision Pro, and none have really become mainstream hits. Apple is navigating a path strewn with the remnants of those who tried before them.

The company’s strategy might be part of the problem. Instead of pushing out a hastily put-together product filled with compromises, Apple prefers to take its time and release something that surpasses everything else by a mile. While that approach has been a massive success in the past, persuading average folks to drop $3,500 on an incredibly specialized product presents a whole new set of challenges.

Gurman points out another thing: the way Apple is introducing the Vision Pro might hurt its sales. You’ll need to schedule an appointment to try it, and initially, it’s only going to be available in the U.S. That’s more hassle compared to just walking into an Apple Store and grabbing one of the top iPhones.

Yeah, Apple pulled a similar move when they introduced the Apple Watch. Since they were marketing it as a luxury fashion piece, they aimed for a sense of exclusivity and luxury by selling it in upscale stores and making appointments necessary. However, they switched gears pretty fast when it became clear that this strategy wasn’t hitting the mark.

Gurman suggests that a quick change of direction might not happen with the Vision Pro. I mean, this headset has a bunch of factors to consider, like different headband sizes and prescription lenses. Plus, convincing folks that a gadget like the Vision Pro is worth dropping $3,500 on won’t be a walk in the park.

All those factors point toward needing a personal session with an Apple Store employee. And if that’s how it goes down, don’t expect the product to be flying off the shelves anytime soon.

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Future of Apple Vision Pro headset looks uncertain

It looks like Apple is well aware that the Vision Pro won’t be a massive seller. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has predicted that the company will move around 400,000 units in the first year, based on info from the supply chain. That’s roughly four units per day for each store in the U.S., the only country where the Vision Pro will be available until the end of 2024.

Yeah, Apple’s got deep pockets, and they might be willing to support the Vision Pro for a bit to give it a boost. But let’s be real: the company’s patience isn’t unlimited.

So, being super hopeful about the Vision Pro’s near future is a bit tricky. I don’t think Apple will freak out at the first hint of trouble — Gurman mentioned before the Vision Pro’s launch that Apple execs were playing the long game on this one. But let’s face it: Apple would prefer to see those sales numbers climb sooner rather than later, and with the current strategy, that might be a tough nut to crack.

Looks like there might be some changes in the pipeline, with a buzz about a more affordable headset in the works. Apple’s got a track record of dropping products that defy expectations, like the Apple Watch which was initially scoffed at. Can the Vision Pro pull off the same trick? Only time will tell.